Previous political prediction: Pathetic, it now seems. It's a good thing that I didn't actually bet any money on this one, like that time I bet on Wile E. Coyote. He's gotta have a good day sometime, right? Ugh.
I had the first inklings that my confident, zanily-phrased prediction of a few weeks ago was complete bilge when I saw Romney and Giuliani going at each other like aggrieved crocodiles in the most recent GOP debate. It was undignified and petty, and I was unsurprised that it neatly coincided with Mike "The Amiabilinator" Huckabee's sudden rise in the polls.
See, I'd thought that Romney was the inevitable result: Business Republicans love him, and social conservatives -- you know, the doltish crowd -- are at least amenable to him. He'd gotten that endorsement from Weyrich, which I thought meant more than it apparently did. Because the dolts are much, much more influential, apparently, than the business types, the candidate that appeals most to them -- Huckabee -- gets stronger and stronger as the caucuses approach.
I use the term dolts in a specific sense. I'm not necessarily saying that anybody who has a problem with gay marriage or abortion is, by definition, an idiot (as tempting as it is.) I'm simply saying that anybody who votes based on those issues is a dolt. Why not worry about the things that a. actually matter, and b. you can actually do something about? But I digress.
Anyway, I'm not picking any winners at present, and you folks can read poll stories just as well as I can. Yeah, Obama and Huckabee are in the ascendant, while Clinton and Romney are in decline, but these things turn, as we've seen, in the blink of an eye. Much better to gamble on things like the Patriots going undefeated, or that horrible prick Tancredo making another stupid, fear-mongering ad.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
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