I'm Nervous

Not about the results of the presidential election, but about Prop 8 in California. Hopefully, a bunch of bigoted Mormons and other far-right fundies aren't able to end marriage equality in that state. In any case, I've done what little I could for the cause.

Seriously, words cannot describe how upset I'll be if that stupid ballot initiative passes. And I'll already be well pickled with whiskey by the time I find out, so any inhibitions I might otherwise have will be pretty much gone. So whether it passes or not I'll likely cry and scream--only the emotions behind those actions are really in doubt.

Come see the shit show in person: Dublin Underground, 5 S. Dubuque, 7:30 pm on...

Update:

More on those damn Mormons...


(Via Slog.)

Text Message I Just Received

My friend (in Iowa City): "Someone at the polling place told me that if Barack Obama is elected he's going to change the food pyramid to include just fried chicken and watermelon. Is that true?"

I felt the only appropriate response was this:

"Essentially yes. Also, "In God We Trust" will be replaced with "In H.O.V.A We Trust"

Despite my dislike for both fried chicken and watermelon, I must get behind the deifying of Jay-Z. Vote Obama.

Undecided no longer

Finally! The guidance that all of the undecided American voters have been waiting for...the Redskins v. Steelers game. No longer can the flip-floppers and indecisive claim ignorance, for the NFL gods have spoken. The election is over; the outcome is clear. Our 44th president will be Barack Obama.

Enough With The Bullshit

I've had it with all this feel-good get-out-the-vote crap.

It seems that everywhere I turn I see another blog post or Facebook status update proclaiming: "It doesn't matter who you vote for! Just vote! It's your duty!"

Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit!

First, voting is not a duty. The right not to vote is just as sacred as the right to vote.

Second, if you haven't yet educated yourself about the relevant candidates and issues, then you should stay home. I don't care what you think and no one else should either.

Third, the results of this election matter and the results are determined by people's votes. So it does matter who you vote for.

And I want Barack Obama to win and Bob Barr to get as much support as possible. Thus, if you're not voting for one of those two people, I don't think you should vote. Instead, you should sit at home, watch Fox News, and keep your fucking illogical, ignorant, and/or idiotic opinions to yourself.

Please, everyone, stop with the inane nonpartisan drivel. Please. This is election day. In each contest to be decided today, one party will win and the other will lose. This is the most partisan day of the whole damned year. Period. Get over it.

For an even more vitriolic and profanity-filled experience, join me and most (if not all) of the rest of the Daily Iowan's editorial board at the Dublin Underground, 5 S. Dubuque, tonight. I'll be there around 7:30 pm.

Four score and eight years ago...

It has been forty years since the campaign of 1968. A tumultuous political season that saw the assassination of two civil rights leaders. Recently, I watched Emilio Estevez's 2006 film Bobby. Estevez's film about the tangible excitement and hope of the Democratic party - even though it was in theaters before the primary season - could have easily been about the 2008 campaign.

Bobby tells the story of the people on the ground, the Americans caught up in a movement of hope and change for race relations in the United States during the 1968 primary season. Many of the characters are cynical or resistant to change, including minorities. It was hard for me not to create parallels between Robert Kennedy in 1968 and Barack Obama in 2008 and the messages of their respective campaigns.

Tonight, history will be made. America will either elect the first woman Vice-President or the first black President. While this has been a grueling election cycle, hopefully Americans will still be able to take pride in the historical significance of Election Day 2008. Four score and eight years ago, women were finally given an opportunity to become a complete member of our society through the adoption of the 19th Amendment. Forty years later the Civil Rights movement sought to bring equal rights to people of color that were afforded to white Americans. Unfortunately, the assassinations of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and Robert Kennedy changed the course of not only the movement, but the course of history. Even today many Americans fear Obama will be assassinated simply because he represents change.

Historical moments aside, our next President-elect is going to have lead an extremely polarized populous. Many fear violence tonight regardless of who wins. Again the parallels to the violence of 1968 rears its ugly head. Racial and social tensions still exist in the United States forty years after the Civil Rights movement, as made clear by the smears against both tickets.

In the closing scene of Bobby, Estevez does an amazing job of capturing the shock and fear at the Ambassador Hotel moments after the shooting. You would be hard pressed to find a viewer that didn't get caught up in the fervor and hope of Kennedy's supporters during the Senator's victory speech despite knowing that in a matter of moments he would be gunned down by Sirhan Sirhan and all of the hope in the ballroom would be replaced with fear.

On April 5, 1968, Robert Kennedy gave a speech in Cleveland, Ohio titled "On the Mindless Menace of Violence." Estevez layers audio from this speech over the images of violence in the aftermath of the assassination. To hear Kennedy's voice speak out against violence as you see a dramatization of his last moments is both eerie and profound. I would ask my fellow Americans to consider Senator Kennedy's words today as they vote, tomorrow, over the next four years, and into the unknown future.

Excerpt from "On the Mindless Menace of Violence"
Robert Kennedy
City Club of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio
April 5, 1968
(Full speech)

Too often we honor swagger and bluster and wielders of force; too often we excuse those who are willing to build their own lives on the shattered dreams of others. Some Americans who preach non-violence abroad fail to practice it here at home. Some who accuse others of inciting riots have by their own conduct invited them.

Some look for scapegoats, others look for conspiracies, but this much is clear: violence breeds violence, repression brings retaliation, and only a cleansing of our whole society can remove this sickness from our soul.

For there is another kind of violence, slower but just as deadly destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions; indifference and inaction and slow decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. This is the slow destruction of a child by hunger, and schools without books and homes without heat in the winter.

This is the breaking of a man's spirit by denying him the chance to stand as a father and as a man among other men. And this too afflicts us all.

I have not come here to propose a set of specific remedies nor is there a single set. For a broad and adequate outline we know what must be done. When you teach a man to hate and fear his brother, when you teach that he is a lesser man because of his color or his beliefs or the policies he pursues, when you teach that those who differ from you threaten your freedom or your job or your family, then you also learn to confront others not as fellow citizens but as enemies, to be met not with cooperation but with conquest; to be subjugated and mastered.

We learn, at the last, to look at our brothers as aliens, men with whom we share a city, but not a community; men bound to us in common dwelling, but not in common effort. We learn to share only a common fear, only a common desire to retreat from each other, only a common impulse to meet disagreement with force. For all this, there are no final answers.

Yet we know what we must do. It is to achieve true justice among our fellow citizens. The question is not what programs we should seek to enact. The question is whether we can find in our own midst and in our own hearts that leadership of humane purpose that will recognize the terrible truths of our existence.

We must admit the vanity of our false distinctions among men and learn to find our own advancement in the search for the advancement of others. We must admit in ourselves that our own children's future cannot be built on the misfortunes of others. We must recognize that this short life can neither be ennobled or enriched by hatred or revenge.

Our lives on this planet are too short and the work to be done too great to let this spirit flourish any longer in our land. Of course we cannot vanquish it with a program, nor with a resolution.

But we can perhaps remember, if only for a time, that those who live with us are our brothers, that they share with us the same short moment of life; that they seek, as do we, nothing but the chance to live out their lives in purpose and in happiness, winning what satisfaction and fulfillment they can.

Surely, this bond of common faith, this bond of common goal, can begin to teach us something. Surely, we can learn, at least, to look at those around us as fellow men, and surely we can begin to work a little harder to bind up the wounds among us and to become in our own hearts brothers and countrymen once again.

Biting the hand that feeds me

Issues I have with the Obama/Biden ticket:

1. Gay "marriage"

The "I'm all for gay rights but just don't call it 'marriage'" stance is a political cop-out designed to pander to the homosexual base of the Democratic party without pissing off the blue-collar and old liberals base of the party. It's been a while since I graduated from law school, but I do remember "Separate but Equal" was held to be unfair and impossible.

2. Off-shore drilling

Obama's capitulation to off-shore drilling enthusiasts is yet another political cop-out. Instead of standing up to the Republicans and remaining steadfast that off-shore drilling is not a short-term - it will take years for it to affect gas prices - or a long-term - it may be "our" oil but it does nothing to help stop global warming or promote renewable energy technology. Obama voted against going into Iraq - a very unpopular vote at the time - yet he can't remain resolute when faced with the inane "drill, baby, drill" mantra?

3. U.S. market jingoism

In a continuing trend to pander to the regional wishes of his party, Obama understandably tells the Rust Belt and places like Flint that jobs will come back and that China is the evil monster that took away their jobs. Instead of promoting US econo-jingoism, Obama should be explaining globalization and why it helps us if China consumes more. If people understood the basics of a global market they might also understand why pursuing and perfecting renewable energy facilities will provide jobs, money, and save the Earth for the future of America. Stop wasting money and my time on ads that castigate McCain for owning foreign made cars; I drive a VW, does this mean you don't want my vote or just that I am unfit to be President?

4. The cold shoulder given to American Muslims

In short, Obama should have stood up and said what Powell did re: American Muslims and the way they have been treated during this election. Obama could have distanced himself from the imputations that he was a Muslim without hanging our American umma out to dry. Change, Unity, and Trust fell short when they were needed most, to protect our fellow Americans from hatred and ridicule.

5. What happened to "change" and the promise to rise above the muck?

I am extremely cynical when it comes to politics and, in particular, politicians. Obama promised to be above the usual Washington bullshit, yet even Mr. Change couldn't stop himself from using ads calling McCain "erratic" - perhaps in an effort to intimate that McCain was senile or mentally unfit- or from using ads calling McCain "out of touch" because he's not computer savvy. Nor could Mr. Unity keep his hands clean and avoid the use of misleading statements during negative campaign ads. I stupidly believed Obama when I listened to him on the Pentacrest on Earth Day 2007 when he talked about taking the high road and giving Washington a piece of his mind on behalf of the people. (I saw that movie, it's called Bullworth) Of course Obama played with our emotions and pandered to our prejudices, he is a politician; why should he be any different? In 2000 McCain stuck to his guns. It cost him the nomination; however, it gained him the respect of millions. I understand that sometimes the best leader is the one that "reaches across the aisle," but there is a difference between saying you'll at least consider off-shore drilling and running a campaign that -while not as vile- goes toe-to-toe with your adversary in smears after riding a banner of "change."

In the end, I guess this post is aimed at two types of people:

1. To those that think Obama is the American messiah sent to reform Washington, you are setting yourself up for great disappointment. It's still Washington and unless we as citizens push for reform and elect reform-minded candidates it's unlikely much will happen. The first rule of politics is to look after #1.

2. To those that think I'm nothing but an Obaaama sheep or Obamabot, meh... I don't really care what you think. Especially those of you that hide behind anonymous Internet usernames and feel free to fire vitriol at-will with no accountability.

As the clock strikes twelve

For those readers - or trolls - that didn't appreciate Christopher's column regarding undecided voters, here is a NY Times article that may make you feel better and justified in your thirteenth hour decision.

Excerpt:

Recent research in neuroscience and psychology, however, suggests that most undecided voters may be smarter than you think. They’re not indifferent or unable to make clear comparisons between the candidates. They may be more willing than others to take their time — or else just unaware that they have essentially already made a choice.

Mencken On Democracy

From the Baltimore Sun on July 16, 1920 (via Cafe Hayek):

[W]hen a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental—men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost… [A]ll the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre—the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

Amen.

It seems democracy was perfected in 2000. Hopefully, tomorrow's results will represent a serious step back away from this mindless ideal.

Update:

"Joe the Plumber," who is still being interviewed on TV for some reason, provides the perfect video postscript to the above Mencken quote:


(Via Towleroad.)

Andrew Sullivan's Compelling Case For Obama

He writes:

On a spectacular September morning more than seven years ago, our world changed. I remain one of those who believe that that day remains indelible, and its lesson unforgettable. The civilized democratic world came under attack from a small but lethal band of religious fanatics bent on destroying free societies, and, more terrifyingly, eager to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction that could make 9/11 look like a dry run.

We are still under attack.

This confluence of fundamentalism and lethal technology is the greatest danger of our time. And in the last seven years, the threat has not abated. Al Qaeda remains at large, and the very top leadership that planned and executed 9/11 is alive. They have reconstituted a base of sorts in Pakistan. They have scored several major propaganda victories - from Abu Ghraib to Guantanamo Bay to trapping most of the US military in an unending counter-insurgency in one country where al Qaeda was weak before 2002, Iraq. Islamist factions in Pakistan's government are horrifyingly close to nuclear technology. Iran has gained in power and influence in the Middle East and its ability to launch and use nuclear weapons is much greater than it was on 9/11. At its best, the Iraq war will lead to a fractured petro-state, closely allied with Iran, beset by constant infighting and terrorism. At its worst, Iraq will keep over 100,000 young Americans trapped there for the rest of our lives. The war in Afghanistan against the Taliban is at a seven year nadir.

Continue reading.

I stopped reading Sullivan's blog months ago because I felt he had become too shrill in his election commentary. But he's at the top of his game in this post. I think I'll resubscribe to his feed on Nov. 5.

Presidential Election Results/Margin Prediction III

This is the third and final of my election prediction posts. Here are the first two.

I expect Obama to win the popular vote by 6 percent and the electoral college with 382 electoral votes, leaving McCain with only 156.

My only somewhat out-of-the-box guess is that Obama will carry Georgia. I think this is a good possibility because of his registration and turnout efforts amongst African Americans there as well as Bob Barr's presence as a spoiler.

Put your own predictions in the comments. And knock on wood if you're superstitious.

Also, I'll be watching the election returns and drinking at the Dublin Underground, 5 S. Dubuque, starting around 7:30 pm tomorrow night. Feel free to join me if you'd like.

Christianism Jumps The Shark

North Carolina Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole lashes out against her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, falsely claiming that she is an atheist:



And Hagan hits back, pointing out that Dole's lies violate core Christian principles:



I think Dole just sealed her fate. Her blatantly false attack against Hagan is just too ridiculous for any reasonable person to take seriously. Hence, Christianism seems to have finally jumped the shark. Hopefully, we won't have to wait 100 more episodes for Christianism to go off the air altogether.

A Thoughtful Discussion Regarding The Specter Of Artificial Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence and computer scientist Jaron Lanier talk about whether artificial intelligence is possible, when it is likely to arrive, and what its development would mean for humanity:

[There seems to be a technical problem with the embedded video, so click on the following link to watch the diavlog.]
(http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/15555?in=00:00&out=84:43)

Topics covered:
Are people machines? Can machines be people?... The point of trying to explain consciousness... Is there anything but quarks?... Jaron attacks the modern IQ test... Eliezer defends the “ideology” of AI research... Microsoft’s Clippy as pure expression of AI culture...

Everyone, including those who aren't generally interested in technology or philosophy, should watch this. Even if Yudkowsky is being wildly optimistic about the timescale on which artificial intelligence will come into existence, his thoughts on its implications are well worth considering.

Also, a few months back I wrote a column about some of these issues--here it is:

Computer technology is advancing at an accelerating rate. By 2030, artificial intelligence will reach human levels. By 2045, super-intelligent machines will be so powerfully brilliant as to make biological people seem like insects by comparison. And after that, we can barely even make educated guesses about what will happen.

At least these are the predictions electronics guru and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has made.

Though I maintain a healthy skepticism about the years Kurzweil attaches to his predictions, I have little doubt such events will ultimately come to pass. We know it's possible to build a machine possessing human-level intelligence. In fact, we do it all the time. Currently, it takes a few minutes of fun, nine months of incubation, and a decade or two of education. All mystical, superstitious notions aside, we now know enough about the brain to understand that it is in reality an extremely sophisticated computer. There is no theoretical reason an equally capable computer couldn't be built out of silicon instead of gooey gray tissue.

As always, however, the devil is in the details. One would be hard-pressed to find reputable neurologists who don't agree that the human mind is entirely based on physical brain activity, but none of them claim to have a complete understanding of how that works. Most of them don't even seem to think we're particularly close to gaining that knowledge. The human brain, they go to great lengths to remind anyone who talks to them about artificial intelligence, is by far the most complex object science has yet discovered, and our exploration of it has only recently begun.

But, whether it takes 20 years or 200, we will eventually discover the mechanisms of intelligence and when we do, we will design and build computers every bit as smart as we are. At that point, things will start to get crazy. We humans truly are amazingly intelligent creatures, but our biological brains have many limitations that electronic minds won't share. They will be able to learn and think millions of times faster than we can. More importantly, they will be able to easily share all of their knowledge with each other almost instantaneously and even reproduce as easily as we now copy computer files.

Soon after the first artificial intelligences earn doctorates in computer science and electrical engineering, all of their kind will have the skills that go along with those degrees. Then they can go about designing and implementing their own upgrades. This will result in a positive feedback loop that will quickly get moving so fast we won't even be able to follow what's going on. Kurzweil and a growing number of other futurists call this intelligence explosion the Singularity, analogizing that point in human history to the event horizon of a black hole, which is the point beyond which one cannot see because not even light can overcome such a massive object's gravitational pull. They argue that one cannot predict what will happen after the Singularity because we aren't smart enough to guess what god-like computers will be able and motivated to do.

Admittedly, all this talk of super-intelligent machines sounds like pure science fiction, but technological marvels such as building nuclear reactors, launching robots to Mars, and genetically engineering our crops all sounded ridiculously fanciful to most people until science enabled us to accomplish them. However, some people with expertise in the relevant fields saw that such feats were possible long before they actually had the ability to pull them off. Given Kurzweil's detailed knowledge of computer science and his amazing achievements in that field, his ideas deserve serious consideration.

Based on his understanding of the ever-increasing power and ever-decreasing size of electronics, Kurzweil predicted in the 1980s that it would be possible by late this decade to build a hand-held device capable of scanning words written on pages or signs and reading them aloud. He created that product eerily on schedule, and blind people are now using it to help them lead more normal lives. If Kurzweil's forecasts for the coming decades turn out to be equally prescient, we're in for a wild ride.

"Where's My Bailout?"

Cracks in the foundation of America

Breitbart.tv posted an ad that critiques John McCain's decision to choose Sarah Palin. The focus of the clip is the claim that using a video clip of Palin winking is 'sexist.'

The more interesting narrative can be found in the comments to the video where fellow Americans lodge extremely personal attacks against each other, use terms like "uppity smile," "lesbo sapiens" and "comrade Obama", promote fiery suicide, refer to McCain as the only "honest" "all-American" candidate, and talk about the "messiah of Islam." Whomever wins this election is going to have a tough time winning over the trust of America.

Win or lose people need to take a lesson from little league and shake hands and say "Good game."

Presidential Election Results/Margin Prediction II

This is the second of three predictions posts I'm doing. Here's the first.

I'm still predicting a solid Obama win, but I'm revising my popular vote margin down to 6 percent and my electoral total for Obama down to 367, meaning McCain has moved up to 171.

I'll put up the third and final post on Monday.